432
FXUS66 KSGX 010819
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
119 AM PDT Sun Nov 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread light rain will continue this morning, becoming more
scattered during the day before tapering off this afternoon and
evening. Dry and warmer for the remainder of the week with highs
near to a few degrees below normal each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Morning water vapor imagery shows the upper level trough beginning
to move across the California Bight with a weak Atmospheric River
feeding into far southern CA. Widespread light rainfall continues
this morning with rainfall rates generally 0.10 inch/hour or less.
Isolated heavier showers with rates near 0.30-0.50 inch/hour are
possible later this morning as colder air aloft moves overhead.
Rain will transition to more scattered showers around sunrise,
then taper off from north to south this afternoon, ending by late
evening.

Additional rainfall totals will range anywhere from 0.25-0.75"
for the coasts to the mountains, locally 1" or more in the San
Diego County Mountains, and 0.05-0.30" in the deserts, highest in
San Diego County. Snow levels near 9500-11000 ft this morning will
gradually fall to 7000-7500 ft this evening as precipitation
ends, with only a light dusting on the highest peaks of the San
Bernardino and San Jacinto Mountains. Otherwise cool today with
high temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal.

An upper level ridge of high pressure moves in from the west on
Monday and Tuesday. This ridge, aided by weak offshore flow, will
provide warmer and drier weather Monday and Tuesday, though highs
will still be a few degrees below normal - generally low to mid
70s across the coastal basin, mid 60s to mid 60s in the mountains,
upper 60s to low 70s in the high desert, and upper 70s to low 80s
in the low desert.

Another upper trough moves through California late Tuesday into
Wednesday morning, but at this time chances of measurable
precipitation are less than 10%. Another round of weak offshore
flow follows for the remainder of the day Wednesday into Thursday
under weakly cyclonic flow, bringing minor warming. Ensembles
begin to diverge a bit more Friday and Saturday with the potential
development of another low digging into the Desert Southwest.
Around 23% of the ensemble members have a deeper low for cooler
weather but slightly stronger offshore flow, while the remaining
members have a much weaker trough Friday and ridging by Saturday
for weaker offshore flow and warmer weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
010600...OVC mid-high level clouds region-wide through Sunday
morning. Generally widespread -RA will continue to move northeast
across the region through Sunday morning, bringing intermittent MVFR
cigs/vis 1500-3000 ft MSL and 3-5 SM respectively through the
coastal basin. Localized SHRA embedded within the overall storm
along the coast and over the mtns may produce brief IFR conditions.
Little to know cig/vis reductions expected in the deserts with -
SHRA overnight.

-RA will become more SCT from west to east 15-18z Sun with mid-high
level clouds also clearing, bringing generally widespread VFR
conditions. ISO/SCT -SHRA will linger through Sunday evening in San
Diego County and in the mtns.

&&

.MARINE...
There is a 5% chance of isolated thunderstorms over the waters
Sunday morning. Westerly winds increase Sunday afternoon and evening
with gusts 20-25 kt. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the
outer coastal waters from 11AM - 9PM Sunday. Weaker winds expected
Monday, followed by more elevated onshore winds Tuesday afternoon
and evening, with gusts in the outer coastal waters potentially
exceeding 20 knots.

&&

.BEACHES...
Southwesterly swell (3 ft at 15 seconds from 200 degrees) will bring
elevated surf this weekend into Monday, with breaking wave heights 3
to 6 feet through Monday. While high tides will continue to wane
through the weekend, tides will remain just above 6 feet which could
still lead to local minor tidal overflow during high tides in areas
where breaking waves approach 5-6 feet, mostly on southwest facing
beaches Sun.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican
     Border Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente
     Island.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CSP

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office